Scenario analysis is not prediction; it is disciplined exploration of plausible futures to inform the choices we make today. Our approach is deliberately both quantitative and qualitative, grounded in deep expertise in model orchestration, forecasting and systemic thinking.
We run two tightly coupled “assembly lines” (Powered by Basinghall Analytics):
Atlas applies retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) with a fact bank, reranking, and neuro-symbolic reasoning.
We apply an eight-step method which is repeatable and auditable:
Clarify strategic questions, decision boundaries and value at stake
Build a fact bank, retrieve and re-rank sources at scale; generate citable analytical narratives that complement model results
Consolidate financial, operational and ESG indicators; document sources and priors for transparency
Select and calibrate narratives and pathways from a structured scenario library; align with regulatory, technology and market signals
Compose macro, sectoral and climate models; define stress vectors and cross-linkages
Run multi-pathway simulations, compute sensitivities and tail risks; quantify impacts on cash flow and P&L statements, balance sheet and KPIs
Translate findings into choices: capital allocation, portfolio shifts, transition plans and risk posture, with explicit trade-offs and triggers
Build in a regular update cycle, clear tracking of assumptions and board-ready reporting aligned with our values of quality, seamless delivery and transparency
